0x9aeb534c42b58b21673d5e03e9da14fbd15b2729
Tracked since 4/15/2026
PnL
$85,706
Active Capital
$26,975
Active Markets
23
| Market | Side | Size | Avg Entry | Current | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? | NO | $414.96 | 0.63 | 0.73 | +$41.48 |
| Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? | NO | $910 | 0.96 | 0.98 | +$19.56 |
| GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? | NO | $335.2 | 0.74 | 0.75 | +$2.33 |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | YES | $5,216.66 | 0.31 | 0.22 | $-465.16 |
| Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? | YES | $349.03 | 0.76 | 0.79 | +$10.84 |
| Will Russia enter Kharkiv by December 31, 2026? | NO | $1,575 | 0.88 | 0.93 | +$79.54 |
| Will Derek Dooley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? | NO | $202.43 | 0.94 | 0.85 | $-18.21 |
| Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? | NO | $3,133.76 | 0.20 | 0.76 | +$1,735.45 |
| Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | NO | $12,009.64 | 0.90 | 0.92 | +$220.36 |
| Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1480 and 1490? | YES | $160 | 0.35 | 0.29 | $-8.8 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? | NO | $666.25 | 0.71 | 0.76 | +$30 |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? | YES | $20 | 0.53 | 0.60 | +$1.4 |
| Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? | YES | $199.22 | 0.33 | 0.50 | +$34.34 |
| Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1510 and 1520? | NO | $412.65 | 0.93 | 0.91 | $-7.65 |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | YES | $7,242.8 | 0.74 | 0.79 | +$293.15 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | YES | $4,291.13 | 0.28 | 0.14 | $-617.57 |
| Will Trump nationalize elections? | NO | $272.4 | 0.62 | 0.89 | +$72.42 |
| Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 27m and 30m? | YES | $1,928.8 | 0.29 | 0.37 | +$145.2 |
| Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1500 and 1510? | NO | $134.15 | 0.64 | 0.77 | +$16.63 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480? | YES | $20.83 | 0.86 | 0.97 | +$2.41 |