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151 markets with smart money consensus (7+ wallets).
Market
Consensus
Wallets
Confidence
Trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
YES
75%
12
9
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→
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET
YES
67%
12
8
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Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
YES
58%
12
7
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Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
YES
91%
11
10
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Kash Patel out by December 31?
YES
91%
11
10
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→
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
YES
91%
11
10
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→
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
NO
73%
11
8
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US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
YES
73%
11
8
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Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?
YES
64%
11
7
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Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
NO
64%
11
7
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Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?
YES
64%
11
7
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Fed rate hike in 2026?
NO
55%
11
6
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Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
NO
55%
11
6
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Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
NO
55%
11
6
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Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?
NO
55%
11
6
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Anthropic IPO before 2027?
NO
55%
11
6
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Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?
NO
55%
11
6
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Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?
YES
55%
11
6
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Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?
NO
55%
11
6
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Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
YES
90%
10
9
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Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
NO
90%
10
9
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Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?
NO
90%
10
9
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Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?
NO
80%
10
8
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Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
YES
80%
10
8
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→
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
NO
80%
10
8
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